This historical data presented in such a stark format makes me think.
I wonder what better game so many people think they are playing when they assume (by their actions) that they can literally outsmart the markets moves to world events
And don't forget to throw in also navigating the psychological expectations and wild crowding behavior of the investor population as it gyrates violently between whether today's news was above or below their collective expectations, only then pivoting quickly on sometimes the flakiest of narratives.
What I perceive to be naive assumptions or unproven beliefs about unknowable things are not something I want impacting the fruit of my lifetime's labor, designed so my family can thrive and have a good life. After all, isn't that what investing is all about? Getting security and resources to facilitate purpose and contentment for those we love.
If it's really important to us, why do we introduce so much random coin flip risk? I, unfortunately suspect it is because of our egos. Examination of motivation and logic can be helpful in slaying these demons.
Think about this, do you want to play pragmatic with what we know to be reasonable expectations given empirical data and history, or flap around with the wind with likely inferior results?
The choice is all of ours to make, and the investment world actively encourages us to do things against our interests.
I'm on team "This is important", so we should go with the best choices we can make to reasonably improve our odds to reach our goals.
Happy to talk if you want too. But if we do I WILL push you to act in your best interests for your family and other top priorities
Tom
