Recently I was able to hear one of my favorite political strategists, Greg Valliere, while in Washington, DC. Here are some of the short high points.
Lots of talk about the shootings and bombings, a negative mood in the country, the center has collapsed in DC.
"centrists are now purged from their own parties"
- More gridlock coming other than infrastructure
- Any threat to kill tax cuts dies until post-2020
- Hostility will continue, impeachment talk will continue and he thinks there will be indictment after Thanksgiving, but the votes aren't there to oust him, Republicans like him too much
- We have a handshake deal with Canada Mexico and EU is good
- A president who bashes the dollar and the Fed is not good
- Big risk of unintentional signals now coming from Fed. He had the most dovish feed president and he fired her.
- The deficit over the next 8-10 years will be over $1T with no will to deal with it, maybe we can push off until the next decade when debt service starts to really hurt.
- The Democrat presidential candidates are elderly and need fresh blood, odds in Vegas are solidly on Trump
- Bill to make tax cuts permanent is going nowhere
- The president's tax cuts 2.0 will be a push for 2019 so he can say he fought for a middle-class tax cut.
- Impeachment proceedings decision will fall to Congress
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